Shortages of antiseizure medications in Australia and the association with patient switching, and adherence in a community setting.

PURPOSE: To quantify sponsor-reported shortages of oral antiseizure medications in Australia, estimate the number of patients impacted, and the association between shortages and brand or formulation switching, and changes in adherence. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of sponsor-reported shortages (defined as where the supply of a medicine will not or will not be likely to meet the demand over a 6-month period) of antiseizure medications reported to the Medicine Shortages Reports Database (Therapeutic Goods Administration, Australia); cross-referencing shortages to the IQVIA-NostraData Dispensing Data (LRx) database, a deidentified, population-level dataset collecting longitudinal dispensation data on individual patients from ∼75% of Australian community pharmacy scripts. RESULTS: Ninety-seven sponsor-reported ASM shortages were identified between 2019 and 2020; of those, 90 (93%) were shortages of generic ASM brands. Of 1,247,787 patients dispensed ≥1 ASMs, 242,947 (19.5%) were impacted by shortages. Sponsor-reported shortages occurred more frequently before the COVID-19 pandemic versus during the pandemic, however, shortages were estimated to affect more patients during the pandemic than before the pandemic. An estimated 330,872 patient-level shortage events were observed, and 98.5% were associated with shortages of generic ASM brands. Shortages occurred at a rate of 41.06 shortages per 100 person-years in patients on generic ASM brands versus 0.83 shortages per 100 person-years in patients on originator ASM brands. In patients taking a formulation of levetiracetam affected by a shortage, 67.6% switched to a different levetiracetam brand or formulation during shortages compared with 46.6% in non-shortage periods. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 20% of patients on ASMs were estimated to have been impacted by an ASM shortage in Australia. The rate of patient-level shortages was approximately 50 times higher for patients on generic ASM brands versus originator brands. Shortages of levetiracetam were associated with formulation and brand switching. Improved supply chain management amongst sponsors of generic ASMs is needed to maintain the continuity of supply in Australia.

Antibiotic geographies and access to medicines: Tracing the role of India's pharmaceutical industry in global trade.

Access to medicines has become a major concern for countries worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic, as pharmaceutical production and trade have been disrupted in the course of the crisis. Antibiotics are one group of medicines where worries about access have been raised. Access to the right antibiotic at the right time is important not only for curing infections of individual patients, but also for curbing antibiotic resistance globally. Reliable pharmaceutical supply is key to ensuring access to medicines. The global supply of generic medicines has over the last decades been transformed by the rise of India's pharmaceutical industry. In this paper, I trace the changing role of this industry for the global export of antibiotics, by mapping and describing changes in Indian antibiotic exports and discussing these in light of historical processes and events. The paper offers a novel approach to analyse global antibiotic trajectories by using international trade data from publicly available resources combined with a secondary literature review. I show that India's pharmaceutical industry today holds a key role as one of the world's biggest exporters of antibiotic medicines, but with an increasing dependency on China as a supplier of antibiotic ingredients. This produces both opportunities and concerns for access to antibiotics globally.

National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2021.

PURPOSE: To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2021 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. METHODS: Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2021 were reviewed-including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for biosimilars, cancer drugs, generics, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic influence, and specialty drugs. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2021 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. RESULTS: In 2020, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the United States grew 4.9% compared to 2019, for a total of $535.3 billion. Utilization (a 2.9% increase) and new drugs (a 1.8% increase) drove this increase, with price changes having minimal influence (a 0.3% increase). Adalimumab was the top drug in 2020, followed by apixaban and insulin glargine. Drug expenditures were $35.3 billion (a 4.6% decrease) and $98.4 billion (an 8.1% increase) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, growth was driven by new products and increased utilization, whereas in hospitals the decrease in expenditures was driven by reduced utilization. Several new drugs that will influence spending are expected to be approved in 2021. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures along with the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: For 2021, we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 4% to 6%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 7% to 9% and 3% to 5%, respectively, compared to 2020. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.

COVID-19, host response treatment, and the need for political leadership.

Health officials and scientists have warned that we face the threat of a potentially devastating influenza pandemic. Instead, we are now in the midst of a global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. National and international pandemic preparedness plans have focused on developing vaccines and antiviral treatments. Another way to confront the COVID-19 pandemic (and future pandemics) might be to treat patients with inexpensive and widely available generic drugs that target the host response to infection, not the virus itself. The feasibility of this idea was tested during the Ebola outbreak in West Africa in 2014. This experience should inform our approach to treating COVID-19 patients. It could also save lives during outbreaks of other emerging infectious diseases and episodes of everyday acute critical illness. If this "bottom up" syndromic approach to treating acute critical illness were shown to be effective, it could have a dramatic impact on health, equity and security throughout the world. HIGHLIGHTS: Uncertainty about the outcome of COVID-19 is driving the social, economic and political distress associated with the pandemic. Treating the host response to COVID-19 with inexpensive and widely available generic drugs might save lives and mitigate this distress. Undertaking research on this idea will require political leadership.